Solving for air pollution in India

We have a massive air pollution problem in India, and it's creating a health hazard similar to forcing non-smokers to smoke simply from breathing the air in our cities and towns.
1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asian_brown_cloud, effects: worse health, changed monsoon rain, more warming, worse harvests, more intense cyclones
2) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_pollution_in_India
3) http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/31/opinion/sunday/holding-your-breath-in-india.html, http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/14/opinion/indias-air-pollution-emergency.html
4) http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-others/landmark-study-lies-buried-how-delhis-poisonous-air-is-damaging-its-children-for-life/, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/air-quality-levels-bengaluru-fares-worse-than-delhi/article7074817.ece

First, we must get the data and monitor the effects
1) Set up air data monitors
2) Analyze the data to understand causes of pollution
3) Develop solutions, prioritize and act to solve for this

The root causes are deeply embedded and widespread. This is a starter list for a data-driven discussion:
1) Industrial pollution, e.g., from smoke-stacks, a large amount is from state-owned power plants
a) Stop companies spewing polluting smoke, ref http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/indias-thermal-power-plants-lag-on-emissions-and-efficiency-says-study-741376. Likely force shut-down leading to distress sale, as State owners lack the capability to clean up their act. Phased transfer to private hands will enable pollution control norms to be applied.
b) Increase use of zero-emission power generation technologies, ref http://www.withouthotair.com

2) Vehicle/transport emissions
a) Stop subsidizing kerosene. Most of it is used to adulterate diesel. Using adulterated diesel increases engine emissions.
b) Low average speeds cause higher pollution per trip (pollution per km moved), so improve the roads and apply town-planning. Increasing average speeds includes measures to reduce distance-traveled and time spent, so it includes mass-transit public transport, elevated roads, more parking spaces where needed, park-and-ride, etc.
c) Better maintenance of engines to avoid belching black smoke, apply emission-control rules to prevent such vehicles from running.

3) Diesel generator backup (telecom towers, offices, shops, homes, etc.)
a) Eliminate grid-power outages
b) Reduce grid-power outages to make battery back-up viable
c) See Industrial pollution (above) ... stopping subsidized electricity, that causes loss-making power businesses and thus erratic power supply, will solve for a key "good" (energy supply) and also reduce the pollution issue.

4) Brick kiln emissions, ref http://urbanemissions.info/model-tools/sim-air/dhaka-bangladesh.html
a) promote alternatives to bricks for construction
b) stop kilns with unclean smokestack emissions

5) Cooking fires with biomass (sticks, cow-dung patties, etc.) and warming fires (to keep people warm in cold weather) ref http://www-ramanathan.ucsd.edu/files/pr178.pdf
a) Provide LPG and piped-gas connections as utility
b) Better cooking-stove and heater technology

6) Farmers burn crop residue on fields, people burn garbage everywhere
Ref http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-newdelhi/ngt-for-measures-to-snuff-out-crop-residue-burning/article6588808.ece and http://bangalore.citizenmatters.in/articles/garbage-burning-bangalore-health-effects — stop this by applying existing laws and promoting less-polluting alternatives.

I'm sure there are more sources, this is just a starter list ...

Is Bangalore short of water?

Read in the newspaper this morning that "For 110 villages, Cauvery hope dries up", ref http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/bangalore/For-110-villages-Cauvery-hope-dries-up/articleshow/24506031.cms. It seems the BBMP (the municipal council for Bangalore) had asked permission to take more water from the Cauvery river to supply potable water to the huge area it added to itself in 2007.

Let's do the math: Bangalore should be exporting water to the Cauvery basin, not importing it.

 975  mm rainfall/year (ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore)
 741  square km area (ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruhat_Bengaluru_Mahanagara_Palike)
 722,104,500  cubic meters water/year (calculated by multiplying rainfall by the ground area)
 10,000,000  population estimate (8.5 million ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore)
 72,210.45  liters water/year/person
 197.84  liters water/day/person

So we should be able to support nearly 200 liters of water consumption per person per day for each of the 10 million people in the 741 square kilometer catchment area of BBMP ... if we invested in water management as civilized cities are supposed to do.

Interestingly, the BWSSB claims to supply  900 million liters per day (ref http://bwssb.org/growth/, claiming 900 MLD = million liters per day). That is 90 liters of water/day/person for 10 million people, and 95% of this is from the Cauvery River. That's a lot of water ... a typical single-family home in the USA uses 262 liters/day (ref http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_consumption). With this level of supply already in place, we should also examine where all this water is going.

On droughts in India, and mismanagement of water

Strange to read articles about water shortage that do not mention how Jaisalmer or other dry parts of Rajasthan manage water. Jaisalmer gets 21 cm of water each year, and yet has no water scarcity (ref http://www.ted.com/talks/anupam_mishra_the_ancient_ingenuity_of_water_harvesting.html).

Let's compare Jaisalmer in Rajasthan to Jalna in Maharashtra, hit by a drought this year:
* Jaisalmer gets 20 cm rainfall/year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jaisalmer)
* Jalna gets 78 cm rainfall/year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jalna,_Maharashtra)

In 2012, Jalna received 32 cm, ref http://sandrp.wordpress.com/2013/03/30/how-is-2012-13-maharashtra-drought-worse-than-the-one-in-1972/, and is "hard hit" by drought, leading to shortage of drinking water and the threat of famine (http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/04/11/hunger-maharashtra-villages-drought-idINDEE93A0DC20130411).

Some are talking of mismanaged water, creating a man-made crisis in Maharashtra this year. The Aral Sea disaster (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aral_Sea) shows how ill-conceived irrigation schemes can cumulate to create an ecological and economic disaster area.

In Bangalore we talk of water shortages in spite of getting 97 cm of rain/year (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bangalore). We destroy the heritage of water management using lakes and watersheds and then fight about the water available to be taken from the Cauvery river, impoverishing its natural flow and causing uncalculated harm to the ecosystem.

Think: these water shortages are man-made, and can be solved with basic civic sense to manage water at a municipal level. How can Bangalore or Jalna learn from Jaisalmer?
 

Solve for oil price, power and availability in India

Petrol and diesel prices are high, and oil import bills are increasing, and we need lots more electric power. Much discussion on the diesel/petrol subsidy, prices and taxes. What can we do to solve this?

1. India oil consumption is ~ 3 million barrels/day (159 liters/barrel) http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption, http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
2. Oil source is 30% in-house (ONGC & Oil India) and 70% imports (say 2.1 million bbl/day)
3. Oil is 24% of Indian energy use http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
4. Current oil price is ~ $94/ barrel
5. We have 5.6 billion barrels of oil reserves http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
6. Cost of oil produced by ONGC is ~ $37/barrel, Oil India $28 http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/ongc-s-crude-production-cost-at-37-29-bbl-in-fy11-oil-minister-168335
7. Coal is 41% of Indian energy use, 617 billion-kg/year
8. Electricity is >70% generated by coal (say 70% of 800 TeraWh)
9. We can liquefy coal to make oil (Fischer Tropsch synthesis). Cost is ~ $35 per barrel (refs:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel, https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/sasol-eyes-6bn-second-secunda-725264, http://energywv.org/assets/files/Energy-Summit-Presentations/2014/26_Burt_Davis.pdf page 61).

Constraint = Assume oil cannot be replaced with anything else (in the short/medium run, it is hardwired into our economy)

Solution = use existing technology and methods to create a ceiling price for fuel oils near ~ $35 per barrel (a Fischer Tropsch synthesis cost).

Actions =

1. Displace coal use = Place orders on a massive scale for nuclear power plants that replace thermal power plants. Cost of the nuclear  plants is amortized into the electricity price, profitable investment with current price-per-KWh (our great nation-state can make the big bet via govt. guarantees) ref http://www.nei.org/keyissues/reliableandaffordableenergy/economicgrowth/
2. Use the displaced coal to displace oil imports = Place orders for coal liquefaction plants to make oil. Cost of the coal liquefaction plants is amortized into the $35/bbl price, profitable investment with current oil-price forecast (our great nation-state can make the big bet via govt. guarantees)
3. Scale these to be sufficient to replace all future oil imports. Say 100 GW nuclear capacity will cost us US$ 400 billion to eliminate an oil import bill of $76 billion/year + profit from electric power generation (1 rupee/kWh cheaper) + effects of oil price reduction + clean energy + lower price/kWh for energy + scale energy … ref 2G scam of Rs1.76LCr was $35b.

Expected results =

1. Oil price in the future (5-6 years for build-out) will crash
2. Oil price in the present will trend down as the market factors-in the investments
3. Converting coal power-plants into integrated nuke&synthoil plants should drastically reduce the pollution generated by these plants. Railway lines bringing in coal can be used to bring in coal and ship out oil. Transmission lines are in place and can be beefed up as generation increases.
4. Scalable solution to electricity generation capacity shortage.