Petrol and diesel prices are high, and oil import bills are increasing, and we need lots more electric power. Much discussion on the diesel/petrol subsidy, prices and taxes. What can we do to solve this?
Constraint = Assume oil cannot be replaced with anything else (in the short/medium run, it is hardwired into our economy)
Solution = use existing technology and methods to create a ceiling price for fuel oils near ~ $35 per barrel (a Fischer Tropsch synthesis cost).
Actions =
- India oil consumption is ~ 3 million barrels/day (159 liters/barrel) http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_con-energy-oil-consumption, http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
- Oil source is 30% in-house (ONGC & Oil India) and 70% imports (say 2.1 million bbl/day)
- Oil is 24% of Indian energy use http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
- Current oil price is ~ $94/ barrel
- We have 5.6 billion barrels of oil reserves http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=IN
- Cost of oil produced by ONGC is ~ $37/barrel, Oil India $28 http://profit.ndtv.com/news/show/ongc-s-crude-production-cost-at-37-29-bbl-in-fy11-oil-minister-168335
- Coal is 41% of Indian energy use, 617 billion-kg/year
- Electricity is >70% generated by coal (say 70% of 800 TeraWh)
- We can liquefy coal to make oil (Fischer Tropsch synthesis). Cost is ~ $35 per barrel (refs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Synthetic_fuel, https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/economy/sasol-eyes-6bn-second-secunda-725264, http://energywv.org/assets/files/Energy-Summit-Presentations/2014/26_Burt_Davis.pdf page 61).
Constraint = Assume oil cannot be replaced with anything else (in the short/medium run, it is hardwired into our economy)
Solution = use existing technology and methods to create a ceiling price for fuel oils near ~ $35 per barrel (a Fischer Tropsch synthesis cost).
Actions =
- Displace coal use = Place orders on a massive scale for nuclear power plants that replace thermal power plants. Cost of the nuclear plants is amortized into the electricity price, profitable investment with current price-per-KWh (our great nation-state can make the big bet via govt. guarantees) ref http://www.nei.org/keyissues/reliableandaffordableenergy/economicgrowth/
- Use the displaced coal to displace oil imports = Place orders for coal liquefaction plants to make oil. Cost of the coal liquefaction plants is amortized into the $35/bbl price, profitable investment with current oil-price forecast (our great nation-state can make the big bet via govt. guarantees)
- Scale these to be sufficient to replace all future oil imports. Say 100 GW nuclear capacity will cost us US$ 400 billion to eliminate an oil import bill of $76 billion/year + profit from electric power generation (1 rupee/kWh cheaper) + effects of oil price reduction + clean energy + lower price/kWh for energy + scale energy … ref 2G scam of Rs1.76LCr was $35b.
- Oil price in the future (5-6 years for build-out) will crash
- Oil price in the present will trend down as the market factors-in the investments
- Converting coal power-plants into integrated nuke&synthoil plants should drastically reduce the pollution generated by these plants. Railway lines bringing in coal can be used to bring in coal and ship out oil. Transmission lines are in place and can be beefed up as generation increases.
- Scalable solution to electricity generation capacity shortage.
